Animoto.com

Come take a ride with me…

Time To Buy…

Why do I think it’s time to buy…

Naples, Florida, February 21st 2009

I recently read an article in Moody’s Economy.com called “Housing in Crisis”. Mentioned in the article was the fact that Naples Area Real Estate is poised to take the biggest hit in average home prices in the country.
According to Moody’s, average home prices will have fallen about 70% from the peak prices in 2006.  They also predict that the Naples Real Estate Market will hit bottom in the next 12 months.
Looking at past housing statistics, we’ll find that the increase in Naples Area home prices was one of the highest in the nation. What went up has come down.
If average home prices have dropped to the 2001-2002 levels, we are basically there. The drop in prices has been 57-60% below peak prices in 2006.  But keep in mind Moody’s does not control the market, the buyers and sellers do. And the Buyers are coming back.
Recent statistics shows that statewide; sales of existing homes in December 2008 have increased by 27% from the same time in 2007 making it the fourth increase in monthly sales in a row. Just from November 2008 to December 2008 sales have increased by 28.9% in the State of Florida. As a matter of fact, just in Naples and Bonita pending sales in the month of January 2009 have increased to 830 from 326 of January last year.
What has changed? Prices.

If we look at the recent FAR (Florida Association of Realtors) statistics, we find that the median existing homes sale prices dropped from $213,600 in December of 2007 to $155,500 in December of ’08. Please note that median sale price is a number that separates the lower half from the higher half of sale prices. Median sale price should not be confused with the average price. Given that most sales are registered in the lower end pricing, the median home sales price moves lower even if the average sale price would move higher.

So, the news is that home sales volume is going up. Buyers are making their way back into the market tempted by the low prices. With the increase in home sales and almost zero new construction, the inventory of exiting homes is decreasing. Admittedly, there is large overhang of inventory but once prices stabilize and buyers continue to snap up inventory, it will take builders time to ramp up and in the long term we may see demand out pacing supply.

Some would say that we have not reached “the bottom” yet. I say, you won’t know when we reached bottom until after it is done.  I am not saying that real estate prices will see the same unsustainable increases as in the past cycle but I am saying that the parameters will change with the decrease in inventory and increase in demand.

To paraphrase a man most investors would like to emulate, Warren Buffett. What is his opinion on the bottom of the market? “If you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”

Another good reason to get off the fence: low mortgage rates. Let’s say you decided to wait. Well, interest rates are still at the lowest levels since the 1960s. Interest rates are bound to move up. Even an increase from 6% to 7% can be a significant increase in monthly payments.

And one more reason, painful for some: the stock market. Many investors have reduced their exposure to the volatility of the stock market. With so many investors in a cash position every drop in the price of desirable Naples property brings more buyers into the equation. Buyers who disregarded a $649,000 property in 2006, and waited when the same property went to $459,000 are now saying I love it at $369,000. This is the trend I see here today.

Everyone knows we are in a “Buyers Market” but how many people will wait until it is not?  Come and see why it is.  We have lots of inventory, low prices, increase in existing home sales, low mortgage levels, volatility of the stock market, all together lead me to believe that the buying trend that has started will continue and grow with more and more buyers bringing their checkbooks to the negotiating table.

So call me : 888 243 2435 or email me: carmen2bestbuynaples.com

Welcome to Naples, Florida…

So, I am starting a blog about, I call it : The State of the Real Estate. I am not going to sugarcoat it: it would require a lot of sugar. If you will follow my blog, you will not only read my opinion about the real estate market in South West Florida but you will have access to official statistics about home sales locally and nationally, statistics that are typically privy only to Realtors. I will do my best to keep you up to date as often as possible, so please check in often or just subscribe to my RSS feed.

 

Well, as a Florida resident for the past 13 years, I have bought and sold several properties all through the last decade’s real estate cycle. I have seen it go up and down. I didn’t know much about economic cycles but I had a feeling that the 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage home that I paid 300k for and was now selling for 600k could not go much higher for much longer especially when the market was now flooded. So, I priced my property at 20% below market at the time. Good decision, the home sold in 2 month.

People were finally catching onto the real estate buzz investing above their means. This is when greed took over Florida Real Estate Market. You can now find their properties on the short sale and foreclosure lists.

And this brings me to what Warren Buffett said about his investing theory:” Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” And let’s be honest, the American investors, even the very wealthy ones, are fearful. That is what we all have in common today. The question is for you to answer: is this the right time to start looking at the real estate market again?
Now, let’s have a look at the economic situation today. The United States Consumer Confidence Index suffered the steepest monthly drop ever in October, as a result of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. A somber picture shows that the short-term inflation expectations rose, job prospects worsened as unemployment rate climbed 6.1%, from 4.4% at the end of 2007, and personal finances have deteriorated at an all time low barely keeping up with inflation.
If we are to have a look at the last downturn of the global stock market, we see that thousands of investors turned their backs on the volatile stock market and deposited their hard earned money into more reliable asset classes like the Real Estate Market that led to a global boom and all time high prices.
We are now facing a similar economic situation and the best way I can put it is: “It might be that time again”.
Let’s look at the foreclosure situation. One in every 194 households in the State of Florida was served a Foreclosure Filing in the month of August and in Cape Coral, Ft. Myers area we have 1 in 66 households foreclosed in the same month, six times higher that the national average.
So we are now in the middle of a Foreclosure Market, which means the prices that dictate the real estate values are now influenced severely by the foreclosure listings. A Comparative Market Analysis will include the homes sold through the foreclosure process which means all prices are being lowered. So, if I was interested in investing in a real asset today, I would take a closer look into the Foreclosure, Preforeclosure, Short Sales and homes listed for Auction.
Good luck and please visit me at  http://www.BestBuyNaples.com